Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 4 June 2026, Wellington International Airport will record a daily high temperature, and Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at zero probability, suggesting minimal trading activity or consensus that the event is too distant for meaningful price discovery. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data directly from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station, converting to Celsius via the platform's settings toggle. Traders are essentially pricing conditional tokens on USDC via Polygon that will resolve to whichever temperature band captures the actual recorded high—a straightforward weather data resolution with no ambiguity once the date arrives.

Wellington's winter (June falls in the Southern Hemisphere's cold season) typically sees daily highs between 10–13°C, though the range can extend from near-freezing to occasional mild days above 15°C depending on synoptic patterns. Historical June records at the airport show extremes of around 19°C on warm days and 2–3°C during cold snaps, providing the outer bounds against which traders should calibrate their range selections. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current dormancy rather than genuine conviction about temperature outcomes.

As the settlement date approaches in mid-2026, traders should monitor New Zealand's seasonal weather forecasts and any anomalous climate patterns emerging in the months prior. The MetService (New Zealand's national forecaster) typically issues 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy, and any significant La Niña or El Niño development could shift June conditions warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal. Liquidity and pricing will likely remain thin until late May, when professional weather traders and casual punters typically enter such markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.