Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 100% YES, reflecting trader consensus that Imam Khomeini International Airport will see at least one aircraft depart before the 1 July 2026 deadline. The settlement hinges on actual takeoff—not gate pushback or airport reopening announcements—with FlightAware as the primary verification source. USDC collateral on Polygon backs both sides of this binary, though the YES position commands full market confidence at present.

IKA's operational history provides context for reading this probability. The airport has experienced extended closures during regional tensions and sanctions periods, yet has consistently resumed commercial operations once political conditions stabilised. Between 2015 and 2019, following the JCPOA, IKA handled regular international traffic before sanctions intensified. The airport reopened for domestic flights in 2020 and has maintained intermittent international service since, demonstrating that even under pressure, Iranian aviation infrastructure eventually returns to some level of functionality within multi-year windows.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation regarding IKA's operational status, alongside broader geopolitical developments affecting sanctions enforcement. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP indicates Iranian airlines continue scheduling flights despite international restrictions, suggesting baseline operational capacity persists. The 18-month settlement window extends well beyond typical closure durations observed historically, making a single departure highly probable unless catastrophic infrastructure damage or unprecedented diplomatic breakdown occurs. Schedule releases from carriers like Iran Air and Mahan Air will signal imminent resumption.

Methodology

We track Any departure from Tehran (IKA) by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.