Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 13 June 2026 will be determined by the closing price of the BTC/USDT 1-minute candle on Binance at that precise moment. The market currently prices this outcome at 0% YES, reflecting the settlement window's distance and the inherent difficulty in pinpointing exact price levels eighteen months forward. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded close price for that candle; if the price falls between two bracket thresholds, the higher bracket resolves as YES. Traders holding conditional tokens on Polygon will need to monitor Binance's 1m candle data directly, as this is the sole authoritative source.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets show that distant settlement dates typically see compressed probability distributions, with traders clustering around round numbers or technical levels rather than dispersing across the full range. Markets settling six to eighteen months out rarely sustain non-zero probabilities across all brackets simultaneously; instead, liquidity concentrates where implied volatility and mean-reversion expectations align. The current 0% reading suggests either no liquidity has formed yet or the specific price bracket in question sits far outside consensus expectations for mid-2026.

Catalysts affecting Bitcoin's trajectory through mid-2026 include Federal Reserve policy decisions, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory developments in major markets. The SEC's spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in January 2024 shifted institutional participation patterns; further regulatory clarity or restrictions could reshape price expectations significantly. Macroeconomic data releases, particularly inflation reports and employment figures, will continue driving short-term volatility that compounds over the eighteen-month window.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.