Bitcoin price on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying the Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT close at 12:00 ET on 21 June will not land in a YES bracket. For a Polymarket user, the mechanics matter as much as the chart: positions settle in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, with the final value determined by Binance’s specified 1-minute candle rather than a broad spot average or index. Binance’s BTC/USDT market itself was trading around **$64,082** at the time of writing, giving a live reference point for where that noon candle could end up.[7]

Bitcoin has been trading in the mid-$60,000s in recent Binance and Yahoo Finance data, with Binance’s own BTC page showing roughly **$64,012** and Yahoo Finance listing a June 21 high around **$64,461** and low around **$64,241** for BTC-USD.[4][9] Against that backdrop, a 0% YES price suggests the market thinks the listed bracket structure is already effectively out of reach, or that the relevant candle is expected to resolve outside the contract’s YES range. Binance also shows Bitcoin above its 2026 price-prediction baseline for the same date, but those forecasts are not the settlement source and should only be read as context, not as a resolution guide.[3][4]

The main catalysts for a trader are ordinary Bitcoin volatility drivers rather than a special June 21 event: ETF flow headlines, macro data, and any sharp move in risk assets can all push the 12:00 ET candle one way or the other. Because settlement is tied to a single minute candle on Binance, the key dependency is the exchange’s own BTC/USDT spot print at that exact time, not the wider market close elsewhere.[5][6][7] In practice, that means a Polymarket holder is watching both the underlying Bitcoin tape and Binance’s live spot market, since even a brief wick around noon can decide the outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.