"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **Toy Story 5** opening-weekend contract at **12% YES**, using USDC on Polygon and settling via the market’s conditional-token structure against The Numbers’ final domestic three-day total. At that level, the market is effectively saying the odds of the film landing in the required bracket are well below the more bullish trade chatter now circulating around the release.

That subdued price sits against a market backdrop of unusually strong expectations for a Pixar sequel. Variety reported that early tracking had the film targeting **$145 million to $150 million** domestically, while Deadline later said the studio forecast had been trimmed to around **$140 million**; both are far above a normal animated opener and would put the film in contention for one of the biggest domestic debuts of 2026[1][3]. Other industry commentary has floated even higher ranges, but those are not uniform, which matters because a small change in the final reported figure could move the market between adjacent brackets if The Numbers lands near a boundary[4][5].

For traders, the main catalysts are the final Friday-to-Sunday numbers, any late studio estimate changes, and whether The Numbers converts early holiday-period reporting into a final three-day domestic gross that is clearly above or below the bracket line. Box office contracts of this type often hinge less on the headline tracking than on how preview demand, theatre count, and walk-up weekend sales translate into the final verified figure. In practice, the Polymarket position only resolves once the domestic opening weekend is marked final on The Numbers, so late revisions are what matter most for conditional-token settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.