Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Xtreme Gaming, the Chinese organisation, face GLYPH in a best-of-one Dota 2 match within the BLAST Slam Group Stage on 28 May at 12:10PM ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices Xtreme Gaming's victory at 100% implied probability, with settlement occurring at 22:40 UTC that same day—a window that allows roughly ten hours post-match for result confirmation. On Polygon, this conditional token pair represents a binary outcome: USDC backing either Xtreme Gaming or GLYPH, with the 50-50 resolution clause triggering only if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or forfeited mid-game.

The 100% probability reflects Xtreme Gaming's standing as a substantially stronger squad within the Chinese competitive circuit. Historically, mismatches of this magnitude in regional qualifiers or group stages have occasionally produced upsets, but the gap between tier-one Chinese teams and emerging rosters typically sustains such pricing. GLYPH's recent form and roster stability would need documented deterioration or Xtreme Gaming roster changes to shift this assessment materially.

Traders should monitor BLAST's official schedule for any postponements or venue issues in the hours before the match window. Roster announcements or last-minute substitutions—particularly affecting Xtreme Gaming's core players—could alter the dynamic, though such changes are rare at this stage of a tournament. The seven-day delay clause provides a safety net against extended postponements, but the tight settlement window means technical issues during the broadcast itself become the primary risk factor for conditional token holders.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.