WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle at a specific closing price on 10 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 100% probability that it closes above the threshold specified in this contract. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC that day, capturing the official New York Mercantile Exchange close for the front-month contract. On Polymarket, traders are backing this outcome with USDC deposits on Polygon, converting their conviction into conditional tokens that resolve to $1 if WTI breaches the price floor.

Historical precedent suggests crude markets rarely sustain extreme scarcity premiums beyond two years. The 2022 spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine peaked above $120 per barrel but retreated to the $70–90 range by mid-2024 as supply adjustments took hold. A 100% crowd probability on an above-threshold close in June 2026 implies either a very conservative threshold or consensus that structural demand and production dynamics will keep WTI comfortably above that level. Comparable long-dated oil contracts have occasionally mispriced geopolitical tail risks, though the two-year horizon here allows substantial time for market repricing if conditions shift.

Traders monitoring this contract should track OPEC+ production decisions (scheduled reviews occur quarterly), US strategic petroleum reserve policy announcements, and any material changes to sanctions regimes affecting major exporters. Refinery maintenance schedules and seasonal demand patterns typically influence June pricing. Recent volatility in equity markets and dollar strength also correlate with crude positioning, so macro calendar events in the months preceding settlement warrant close attention.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.