Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Falcons face Aurora in a best-of-one Dota 2 match at the BLAST Slam Group Stage, scheduled for 27 May at 7:30AM ET. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for a match resolution, with USDC settlement on Polygon conditional tokens. This pricing suggests traders perceive minimal risk of cancellation, postponement beyond the seven-day window, or a tie outcome—the three scenarios triggering a 50-50 split resolution.

Historical precedent from BLAST Slam tournaments shows consistent fixture completion rates above 95%, with cancellations typically announced 48 hours prior. Aurora's participation in recent Dota Pro League qualifiers and Team Falcons' active roster status both indicate operational readiness. The one-sided probability reflects confidence in basic fixture execution rather than a prediction about match outcome; the market structure separates match occurrence from match winner into distinct contracts.

Traders should monitor BLAST's official schedule announcements and team roster updates through late May, particularly any visa complications or equipment logistics affecting either squad's travel to the venue. Recent ESL and BLAST events have maintained their published timings despite regional internet disruptions affecting broadcast quality but not match play. The settlement window closes at 17:30 UTC on 27 May, providing a 10-hour buffer beyond the scheduled 12:30 UTC start time to accommodate technical delays without triggering the postponement clause.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.