Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian's tenure as Iran's president faces a 36% implied probability of termination by end-2026 on Polymarket, with USDC settlement on Polygon. The contract resolves YES if he ceases to hold the office through any mechanism—resignation, removal, death, or effective incapacitation—before 31 December 2026, with announcement alone triggering immediate resolution regardless of implementation timeline.

Iran's presidential system constrains removal pathways more narrowly than Western democracies. Pezeshkian cannot be unilaterally dismissed; impeachment requires parliamentary supermajority (two-thirds of 290 seats), a threshold rarely achieved in the Majlis. His predecessor Hassan Rouhani completed two full terms without removal despite nuclear deal fallout and economic hardship. Voluntary resignation remains uncommon among Iranian presidents, though Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced sustained pressure during his second term. The Supreme Leader's authority over security apparatus and judiciary creates informal removal mechanisms, but direct intervention against a sitting president carries domestic legitimacy costs.

Near-term catalysts centre on parliamentary dynamics following the 2024 elections, where hardline factions gained ground, and economic pressures from sanctions affecting oil revenues and currency stability. Health incidents, though rare among sitting presidents, warrant monitoring given Pezeshkian's age (69) and the absence of transparent succession protocols. Regional escalation involving Israel or the United States could trigger either consolidation around the presidency or destabilisation. The 2025-2026 period encompasses potential nuclear negotiations or military confrontations that might shift factional calculations regarding his political utility to the Supreme Leader's office.

Methodology

This page reviews Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.