Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's weather on 9 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at LaGuardia Airport. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Weather Underground, with resolution tied to the single highest Fahrenheit temperature recorded across all times on that date. Traders are currently pricing this contract at 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which bracket will resolve or technical factors affecting market liquidity on Polygon.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The station's June average high sits around 79°F, though the month regularly produces readings between 85–92°F on warm days. The all-time June record of 96°F (set in 1994) remains an outlier; most years see peak June temperatures cluster in the 80–88°F range. This distribution matters because it frames which temperature brackets represent base-case scenarios versus tail outcomes. The current 0% pricing across all ranges suggests the market may not yet have sufficient trading activity to establish meaningful price discovery, or participants are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts closer to the settlement date.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Atlantic hurricane season outlook and jet stream positioning as June approaches. The National Weather Service typically refines extended forecasts 10–14 days before the target date, which would occur in late May 2026. Any significant heat dome or early-season high-pressure system affecting the Northeast could shift expectations materially. Liquidity and price formation may improve substantially once seasonal forecasts solidify and traders can calibrate positions against competing temperature brackets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.