LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

FlyQuest face Sentinels in a lower bracket quarterfinal best-of-five series scheduled for 30 May at 21:00 UTC, with the conditional tokens on Polygon currently pricing FlyQuest at 98% implied probability. This represents a decisive matchup in the LCS playoffs where the loser exits the tournament entirely. The market's settlement window extends to 31 May at 02:00 UTC, providing a narrow buffer for match completion given the BO5 format's variable duration.

FlyQuest's dominant pricing reflects their regular season performance and roster stability, though lower bracket matchups have historically produced upsets in LCS history. Sentinels, despite their lower seeding, have demonstrated resilience in previous playoff runs. The 2% probability assigned to Sentinels suggests the market views an upset as unlikely but not impossible—comparable to other heavily favoured lower bracket teams that occasionally advance through disciplined macro play and individual performances. Recent LCS lower bracket matches have occasionally extended to five games, which would place completion near the settlement deadline.

Traders should monitor official LCS scheduling confirmations and any roster announcements closer to the match date, as player availability or technical issues have occasionally delayed or altered playoff fixtures. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens will settle based on match completion and final scoreline; any cancellation or delay beyond 7 June would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Given the tight settlement window relative to BO5 duration, delays represent a material risk factor distinct from the underlying competitive outcome.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.