Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits daily, has experienced significant traffic disruption since late 2024 following escalations in the Red Sea and broader regional tensions. The IMF Portwatch metric tracks actual vessel arrivals rather than theoretical capacity, meaning the 60-call threshold represents a meaningful recovery from current depressed levels. Polymarket currently prices YES at 20%, reflecting trader scepticism that normalisation—defined here as sustained passage of approximately 60 vessels per day averaged over seven days—occurs within eighteen months.

Historical precedent suggests Hormuz disruptions resolve slowly. The 2019 tanker attacks and subsequent tensions took roughly six months to fully normalise, whilst the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war's indirect effects on regional shipping patterns persisted for over a year despite no direct Hormuz blockade. Current transit figures sit substantially below the 60-call baseline, meaning recovery requires either a dramatic de-escalation in regional hostilities or a shift in shipping patterns that routes traffic back through the strait rather than around Africa. The low probability reflects how entrenched alternative routing has become amongst major shipping lines.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from the Houthis regarding Red Sea operations, any ceasefire negotiations involving Yemen, and statements from Iran regarding its own regional posture. Recent reporting from Bloomberg in January 2025 indicated shipping companies remain cautious despite temporary lulls in attacks. The IMF publishes Portwatch data weekly, meaning resolution could occur at any point, but the eighteen-month window requires either a fundamental shift in regional geopolitics or a gradual merchant marine confidence recovery that current market pricing suggests remains unlikely.

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.