Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy trajectory over the next three months hinges on decisions at FOMC meetings scheduled for mid-March, late April, and mid-June 2026. Each session will determine whether the upper bound of the federal funds rate moves higher, lower, or remains unchanged. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting trader conviction that no rate cut will occur across this window. The YES outcome requires at least one qualifying cut—a reduction in the upper bound from its current level—during any of the three meetings.

Historical precedent suggests sustained rate-hold periods are common when inflation remains sticky or labour markets stay resilient. The Fed held rates steady through multiple consecutive meetings in 2023 and early 2024 before beginning cuts in September 2024. Current economic data—including recent inflation readings, employment figures, and Fed communications—will shape whether officials see room to ease policy. A string of three consecutive holds would align with the market's current pricing, though any material shift in inflation expectations or recession signals could alter that calculus substantially.

Traders should monitor the Consumer Price Index releases scheduled before each FOMC meeting, along with monthly employment reports and Fed speakers' remarks on monetary policy stance. The March meeting will be the first test; if officials signal hawkish concerns about sticky inflation or labour-market strength, the probability of cuts in April and June would likely contract further. Conversely, evidence of cooling demand or disinflation could shift market pricing upward. The settlement window closes 17 June 2026, immediately after the final FOMC decision.

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.