Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically contested maritime chokepoints. Roughly one-fifth of global oil passes through it annually. The question of which countries will deploy warships through the strait by mid-2026 hinges on regional tensions, freedom-of-navigation operations, and whether existing naval postures escalate. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 4% YES, implying traders assess a low probability of confirmed warship transits during the settlement window—a notably compressed expectation given historical patterns.

The United States Navy has conducted regular freedom-of-navigation operations through the Strait since 2020, often with allied vessels including those from the United Kingdom, France, and Australia. Iran has periodically challenged these transits and conducted its own naval exercises in the waterway. China has also increased naval presence in the region. The 4% probability suggests the market is pricing in either a continuation of the status quo without formal confirmation of new transits, or scepticism about whether transits will meet the market's definition of credible reporting.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, statements from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, and any escalation tied to sanctions policy or regional proxy conflicts. Recent tensions over the Houthis' Red Sea attacks have already prompted increased Western naval activity in adjacent waters. The settlement hinges on whether governments or credible media outlets explicitly confirm warship passages—a higher evidentiary bar than the transits themselves occurring.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.