Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked by Iran, with commercial shipping traffic virtually shut off since late February 2026. While a US-Iran peace deal announced in mid-June has reopened the strait for mine removal, experts warn it will take eight weeks for transit volumes to return to pre-war levels. This timeline directly challenges the market’s 8% probability that normal traffic—defined as a 7-day moving average of 60 or more daily arrivals—will be achieved by the end of June.

Historical precedents and current analyst forecasts suggest the 8% odds are overly optimistic. Following the April 2026 declaration that the strait was open, commercial flows did not immediately rebound to pre-war levels, as insurance tightening and war-risk premiums continued to deter vessels. More recently, Kalshi traders assign only a 57% probability that traffic normalises before August, with New York Post analysts noting that only 15 ships cross daily, requiring roughly 30 days to clear the 500-ship backlog. These figures indicate that reaching the 60-arrival threshold by June 30 is highly improbable.

Key catalysts for traders include the formal signing of the US-Iran agreement in Switzerland, scheduled for Friday, and the subsequent deployment of US naval escorts to guarantee toll-free passage. The US administration has confirmed it will cover insurance costs, a critical dependency for restoring confidence. However, as Reuters reports, shipping firms remain wary, stating that navigation confidence could take weeks to rebuild. Until the backlog clears and insurance markets stabilise, the threshold for "normal" traffic will likely remain unmet by the settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.