Colombia Presidential Election

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its next presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first round. The current market pricing at 0% YES reflects either a specific candidate being heavily favoured or, more likely, the conditional token structure on Polygon meaning liquidity is concentrated elsewhere on the order book. USDC settlement will depend on official results certified by Colombia's National Electoral Council (CNE) and reported by major news outlets by year-end 2026.

Colombia's electoral history shows runoff contests are commonplace rather than exceptional. In 2022, Gustavo Petro won the presidency in a second round with 50.4% of votes against Rodolfo Hernández. The 2018 election also went to a runoff, with Iván Duque prevailing. This pattern means traders should anticipate a two-stage process: first-round fragmentation across multiple candidates, followed by a clearer binary choice in June if required. The 0% pricing likely reflects market participants holding positions on alternative candidates rather than genuine consensus that one option cannot win.

Key dates and announcements will reshape conditional token valuations substantially. The CNE's formal candidate registration period typically occurs in the months preceding the election, whilst campaign finance disclosures and polling releases will provide information signals throughout 2025 and early 2026. Any major political developments—coalition formations, candidate withdrawals, or significant corruption allegations—could trigger repricing across the conditional markets. Traders should monitor Colombian news sources and CNE statements for procedural updates that might affect settlement mechanics or timeline certainty.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.