Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices a U.S.–Iran bilateral agreement signed by Trump at 19 cents on the dollar, implying roughly one-in-five odds of a deal materialising before the August 2026 deadline. The contract settles affirmatively if Trump signs any written agreement to which both nations are parties, regardless of whether he acts as president, private citizen, or representative. The specificity matters: the agreement need not involve direct Iranian or American signatures, but both governments must be formal parties to the text.

Trump's prior Iran engagement provides the clearest historical benchmark. His 2018 withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) set a precedent for unilateral action on Iran policy, though it also demonstrated his willingness to reverse Obama-era agreements. The subsequent "maximum pressure" campaign of sanctions lasted through his first term without producing a replacement accord. Conversely, his late-2024 rhetoric has occasionally signalled openness to negotiation, though no formal talks have commenced. The 19% probability reflects scepticism that either party will move toward formalised agreement within the timeframe, balanced against Trump's unpredictability on foreign policy.

Traders should monitor Trump's appointment of State Department and national security personnel, expected announcements regarding Iran policy direction in early 2025, and any indirect diplomatic channels that might activate. Reuters reported in December 2024 that Trump's team was reviewing Iran strategy, though no concrete negotiating framework has emerged. The market will likely respond sharply to any public statement from Trump signalling serious engagement, or conversely, to escalatory rhetoric or sanctions announcements that would narrow the path to agreement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.