How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is pricing zero probability that Earth will experience one or more earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above during the seven-day window of 1–7 June 2026. On Polymarket, this means YES tokens (which would pay out 1 USDC each if the threshold is met) are trading at negligible value, whilst NO tokens command near-total backing. Settlement hinges on USGS earthquake data published within their standard search interface, with the magnitude floor set at 5.5 and the date parameters locked to the specified window.

Historically, a seven-day period without a magnitude 5.5+ earthquake globally is neither rare nor exceptional. The USGS records roughly 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5–6.0 annually worldwide, and roughly 3 of magnitude 6.0–6.9, meaning the statistical likelihood of zero events in any given week hovers around 70–75 per cent. The 0% crowd probability reflects not geological implausibility but rather the mechanics of thin markets where low-probability outcomes attract minimal liquidity. Recent seismic activity in 2025 showed no sustained uptick in mid-range magnitudes that would suggest elevated risk for early June 2026.

Traders monitoring this contract should track USGS real-time earthquake notifications and any significant tectonic alerts issued by regional seismic networks. The settlement window closes 8 June at 03:59 UTC, allowing a brief grace period for delayed reporting of events that occurred within the seven-day window. No scheduled geological events or announced monitoring campaigns are expected to influence seismic activity during this period; outcomes depend entirely on natural tectonic release patterns.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.