ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is currently pricing **0% YES** for New Zealand v Ireland, even though the match is scheduled as a live ICC Women’s T20 World Cup fixture in Southampton on 19 June 2026. Because this market resolves to the final result on ESPNcricinfo, the USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional token should only pay out if New Zealand are recorded as the winner there, including via any on-field tiebreak or DLS outcome that the competition recognises as a win.[2][9]

The history that matters here is the gap between implied price and cricket’s win mechanics. In women’s T20 World Cups, established sides such as New Zealand are usually priced far above zero once a match is confirmed, so a 0% contract is a sign that the market is treating the outcome as effectively settled against them, or that liquidity is thin rather than a precise forecast. That matters on Polymarket because a tiny market can stay pinned near zero until late trading, even if the sporting probability is not literally nil.

A trader should watch the confirmed playing XIs, any toss delay, weather at the Hampshire Bowl, and whether the fixture is completed on schedule, since rain-shortened matches can shift into DLS territory without changing the settlement logic.[2][9] The ICC listing places the match at 10:30 local time, and the result will be the published final scoreline, so any late squad change, abandonment, or revised target is more relevant than pre-match narrative.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.