ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The West Indies women's cricket team will face New Zealand in a T20 World Cup group-stage match on 13 June 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 100% YES, meaning traders are assigning near-certain probability to the match occurring as scheduled. The settlement hinges on ESPN Cricinfo's official result publication; any on-field resolution mechanism—including Super Overs in case of a tie, DLS adjustments for weather, or over-rate penalties—counts as an ordinary win for resolution purposes. A walkover or forfeit would also trigger settlement, though such outcomes remain uncommon at ICC tournaments.

Historical context suggests that ICC women's T20 World Cup matches rarely fail to complete. Since the format's inception in 2009, fixture cancellations have been exceptionally rare, with weather delays typically managed through reserve days or DLS methodology rather than abandonment. New Zealand's women's team has participated in every World Cup cycle without withdrawal, and the West Indies similarly maintain consistent tournament participation. The 100% market price reflects this structural reliability: scheduled ICC fixtures between established nations almost invariably reach a result.

Traders should monitor fixture confirmations from the ICC's official schedule as the tournament approaches, particularly any venue or date changes announced via the governing body's website. Injury withdrawals affecting either squad would not prevent match settlement, though they could influence underlying match odds on separate markets. Weather forecasts for the match location become relevant only if they threaten abandonment rather than affecting play conditions. Polymarket's conditional token architecture means this YES contract's value depends purely on match occurrence, independent of outcome.

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.