Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage on 13 June, with the market currently pricing a Haiti victory at 62% on Polygon. That probability—reflected in USDC-denominated conditional tokens—implies bookmakers and traders view the Caribbean side as favourites, a positioning that warrants scrutiny given historical precedent and squad composition. The settlement window closes just after midnight UTC on 14 June, allowing roughly 24 hours post-match for resolution.

Haiti's qualification for the 2026 tournament marked their first World Cup appearance since 1974, a 52-year gap that shapes how to interpret the current odds. Scotland, conversely, has competed in recent tournaments (2022 in Qatar) and maintains a higher FIFA ranking. Direct comparisons are limited—the nations have not met competitively in decades—but Haiti's recent CONCACAF qualification run demonstrated tactical cohesion and home-ground advantage effects that may not fully translate to neutral venues. Scotland's European pedigree and established squad depth typically command respect in World Cup contexts, yet the 62% YES pricing suggests traders are weighting Haiti's motivation and relative unfamiliarity as opposing advantages.

Key catalysts include final squad announcements from both federations in May 2026, injury updates to key players, and any late tactical shifts disclosed by managers. Weather conditions in the host nation (USA) and group-stage dynamics—particularly results of concurrent matches—could shift trader sentiment in the 48 hours before kickoff. Polymarket's conditional token mechanics mean positions can be hedged or exited until settlement, allowing traders to respond to breaking team news or shifting market consensus.

Methodology

This page reviews Haiti vs. Scotland across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.