Panama vs. Croatia - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **77% YES** for more markets on Panama v Croatia, settled against the market’s definition by **23 June 2026 23:00 UTC**, with traders funding positions in **USDC** on **Polygon** via conditional tokens. The real-world event is the FIFA World Cup match in Toronto on 23 June, and the contract only resolves if extra tradable markets are listed around it before the settlement cut-off.[3][10]

A 77% implied probability is broadly consistent with how Polymarket often treats a live, high-profile football fixture when there is strong expectation of ancillary activity but no guarantee of a fresh market launch. Comparable World Cup match contracts can stay elevated when the underlying game is already attracting heavy attention, ticket demand is strong, and the exchange has enough time and liquidity to add related markets such as team totals, cards, or player props before kick-off. ESPN’s market page currently shows Croatia as a clear pre-match favourite on the moneyline, which can support interest in derivatives even when the headline result itself is not the contract being traded.[1][2][6]

The main catalysts are operational rather than purely sporting: whether Polymarket posts any new Panama-Croatia market before settlement, how close the listing arrives to kick-off, and whether the market maker and traders see enough volume to justify it. Reuters reported on 21 June that the fixture is a pivotal Group L match in Toronto, while FIFA lists the match for 23 June at 19:00 UTC, so traders should watch official match-centre updates, lineup announcements, and any late schedule or integrity notices that could affect whether “more markets” are created in time.[3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Panama vs. Croatia - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.