Tunisia vs. Japan - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia and Japan meet in Group F of the FIFA World Cup in Monterrey, and Polymarket is pricing the “More Markets” contract at **4% YES** today, which means traders are assigning only a small chance that extra related sub-markets will be listed before settlement. On Polymarket, that view is expressed in **USDC** through **Polygon**-based **conditional tokens**, so the quote reflects the market’s estimate of whether the contract’s listing conditions will be met rather than the match result itself.

That low single-digit price fits the way similar event-expansion markets typically trade: they usually need a clear reason for the platform to add another derivative market, and without a fresh angle or a change in the match narrative, they can stay suppressed even around high-profile fixtures. Reuters reported on 19 June that FIFA said Japan v Tunisia is the World Cup’s 1,000th match, which adds headline value but does not by itself guarantee more market creation[5]. The baseline fixture itself is also already well defined by FIFA as Match 36 at Monterrey Stadium, which reduces uncertainty around the schedule[7].

For traders, the practical catalysts are platform-side, not football-side: watch for Polymarket announcements, any change to the match page or settlement wording, and whether the game’s timing or event classification shifts in the final hours before kick-off. Independent fixture listings still place the game on 21 June with midnight Eastern timing, matching the settlement window, so the key dependency is whether the market operator adds further related contracts before that cut-off[3][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.