Jordan vs. Algeria

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jordan and Algeria meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with kick-off set for 03:00 UTC on 23 June, which is the timing Polymarket’s conditional tokens will ultimately resolve against if the game is played as scheduled.[5][1] With the contract trading at a **24%** crowd-implied YES price, Polymarket is currently marking a low-probability outcome in USDC on Polygon, so buyers are paying for an upset or a market move rather than a baseline favourite story.

That price sits in a range that is easy to contextualise against mainstream match odds rather than treating it as a forecast in isolation. ESPN’s live market feed shows Algeria as the stronger side at **-175** on the moneyline, Jordan at **+500**, and the draw at **+320**, while the same match is listed at **+280** for a draw and **+145** for Jordan to cover **+0.5** in the spread market.[3] In other words, a 24% YES on a yes/no contract is broadly consistent with a view that Jordan are the outsider but not a complete write-off, especially in a World Cup setting where late squad news and game-state volatility can move prices quickly.[3]

The main catalysts for traders are squad confirmation, any late injury or suspension updates, and whether either side rotates from the line-ups previewed in the final team news cycle before kick-off.[1][2] ESPN’s preview also notes the referee is Slavko Vincic and that the match is being carried on ITV in the UK, Fox Sports in the US, Zee5 in India and SBS in Australia, which can matter for attention and liquidity if line-up news breaks close to broadcast windows.[1] Because the settlement window closes at 03:00 UTC, the market will resolve on the official match outcome at the scheduled finish unless the fixture is delayed or materially altered.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.