San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Giants v Marlins contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively treating a Giants win as either extremely unlikely or already ruled out in on-chain trading on Polygon, with settlement still handled through the usual USDC conditional-token mechanics. In practical terms, that leaves very little room for normal pre-game probability rather than a dead-heat or stale order book effect, so traders should check whether the contract has already reflected the final result or any resolution update rather than the raw baseball matchup alone.[5]

The comparable market context points the other way: before first pitch, outside sportsbooks had Miami only a modest favourite, with the Marlins around -113 to -128 and the Giants near -106 in some listings, while the matchup was also shown as a low-scoring game around eight total runs.[1][3] ESPN and Fox Sports both listed the game as a June 19 fixture, and the boxscore page indicates it was played, which matters because a completed game normally resolves on the official final result rather than on pre-game expectations.[2][4] That makes a 0% YES price more consistent with post-game or near-final information than with a live pre-match read.[2][5]

For traders, the key catalysts are not team news so much as final league confirmation: official scorekeeping, any protest or suspended-game wrinkle, and whether the event was completed, postponed, cancelled, or ended in a tie under the market rules. The settlement window runs until 2026-06-26T23:10:00Z, so if the result was not cleanly finalised, the contract can stay open until completion or revert to a 50-50 settlement only in the specific cancellation/tie scenarios described by the market terms.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.