Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers travel to Cleveland on 13 June for an afternoon fixture against the Guardians, with first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices a Tigers victory at 20%, implying roughly a 4-to-1 underdog position. The settlement window extends to 20 June, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling disruptions occur. Conditional tokens on Polygon track both outcomes in USDC denominations, with the market splitting 50-50 only if the game is cancelled without a make-up or concludes in a tie—an exceptionally rare occurrence in MLB.

Historical context suggests the 20% probability reflects Cleveland's recent competitive advantage in head-to-head matchups and their stronger divisional standing. The Guardians have won the AL Central in recent seasons, whilst Detroit has typically finished lower in the division. When Polymarket prices a team at 20%, it generally aligns with teams holding a 0.500 or weaker win percentage against their opponent, adjusted for home-field advantage and roster composition at the time of pricing.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through early June, particularly injury reports affecting starting pitchers or key position players. Cleveland's pitching depth and Detroit's recent offensive form represent the primary catalysts affecting contract value. Weather forecasts for Cleveland on 13 June warrant attention, as afternoon games in the region can face delays or cancellations during early summer storm systems. Any late-breaking trades or call-ups to either roster in the week preceding the fixture could shift conditional token valuations on Polygon.

Methodology

This page reviews Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.