Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Auger-Aliassime enters Roland Garros 2026 as the clear favourite against Nakashima, with the conditional token pair on Polygon currently pricing the Canadian's advancement at 90 cents on the dollar. The match sits in the early rounds of the clay-court Grand Slam, scheduled for 30 May at 5:00 AM ET. Settlement occurs six days later, allowing a narrow window for completion before the 7-day tie-break rule triggers a 50-50 resolution.

Auger-Aliassime's ranking and recent form justify the heavy pricing. The Canadian has consistently performed better on clay than Nakashima in recent seasons, with a superior record against comparable opposition. Nakashima, an American baseliner, has shown inconsistency on slower surfaces and lacks the tactical flexibility Auger-Aliassime demonstrates. Historical matchups between players of this calibre and surface suitability typically see the higher-ranked player convert 85–92% of the time in early-round encounters. The 90% probability reflects this baseline expectation rather than any dramatic recent shift in their relative standing.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any weather disruptions affecting the clay courts in late May. Early-round scheduling changes are common at Grand Slams, particularly for matches scheduled at unconventional times. Injury reports in the fortnight preceding the tournament could alter the matchup entirely. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polygon means liquidity may tighten as the match date approaches, potentially widening bid-ask spreads on the conditional tokens.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.