Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed through impeachment and conviction, or be declared ineligible under the 25th Amendment before 30 June 2026 for this market to settle Yes. Polymarket currently prices that outcome at 1%, reflecting the substantial constitutional and political barriers to such an event within an 18-month window. The contract trades on Polygon as conditional USDC tokens, with the Yes and No positions summing to $1 across the settlement date.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 after facing near-certain impeachment and conviction; no sitting president has been removed via the 25th Amendment. Impeachment itself is rare—only three presidents have faced it, and none were convicted by the Senate. The 22nd Amendment prevents a third term, but Trump's second term runs through January 2029, placing any constitutional ineligibility claims outside the market's window. The 1% probability reflects both the procedural difficulty of removal and the current Republican Senate majority's composition.

Traders should monitor congressional dynamics following any major scandal or health incident, though no such catalyst currently dominates headlines. The market's settlement hinges on formal announcements of resignation or removal—not speculation or health concerns. Key dates include State of the Union addresses and any significant legislative developments that might shift Senate dynamics, though the probability has remained stable since Trump's inauguration in January 2025. The conditional token structure means positions track only this specific outcome, independent of broader Trump-related market movements.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.