2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The listed player has already been eliminated from the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, making the contract to make the cut a certainty for "No". The tournament, held from 18–21 June, established its cut line at four-over par, with 72 players advancing and 84 sent packing after Friday’s second round[2]. With the event now in its final stages and the player absent from the weekend field, the on-chain conditional token on Polygon, settled in USDC, reflects this impossibility with a 0% implied probability for "Yes".

Historically, similar scenarios on Polymarket have resolved instantly to "No" once a player is confirmed missing from the cut list, as the rules explicitly state that impossibility triggers a "No" resolution[4]. Comparable cases from recent majors show that when high-profile players like Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm fail the cut, markets pricing their weekend participation collapse to zero within minutes of the official announcement[8]. This pattern confirms that the current 0% price is not speculative but a mechanical reflection of the tournament’s definitive outcome.

Traders should monitor the official USGA communications for any rare administrative changes, though the cut is already finalised[7]. The primary catalyst was Friday’s second-round scores, which DataGolf estimated had a 93% likelihood of landing at four-over par[2]. No further announcements will alter the result, as the 72-hole stroke-play format and the low-60-scores-and-ties rule have been fully executed[6]. The market will resolve to "No" by the settlement window on 21 June, with no scope for reversal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.