Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all outcome brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty among traders or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing. Settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, making the resolution mechanical once the day passes and data publishes.

Beijing's June temperatures typically range between 25°C and 35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical patterns from the past decade show mid-June highs clustering around 30–32°C under normal conditions, though the city has recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C during exceptional heat events. The 2022 summer saw sustained temperatures above 35°C from late June onwards, whilst cooler Junes have produced highs near 27–28°C. These precedents matter because they establish the plausible range; traders should weight seasonal norms against the possibility of anomalous weather systems.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include the East Asian monsoon's timing and intensity, which typically strengthens in mid-June and can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation or intensify heat through humidity. The China Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts that become more reliable roughly a week before the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether subtropical high-pressure systems establish themselves over northern China during early-to-mid June, as these drive the most extreme heat events. Current seasonal models from major forecasting centres will become actionable data points as June approaches, though long-range forecasts issued now carry substantial uncertainty margins.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.