Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, measured to one decimal place. The market currently prices at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure at midday UTC on that date—before the Observatory publishes its final daily extract. This timing creates a hard dependency: traders cannot resolve positions until the Observatory releases verified data, typically within days of the observation period. On Polygon, conditional tokens representing each temperature range sit dormant until that publication occurs, at which point USDC settlement becomes possible.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the pre-monsoon season, when daily maxima typically range between 29°C and 33°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows June averages around 31–32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C during heat waves. The 0% pricing reflects not scepticism about whether a temperature will occur—it certainly will—but rather the mechanical impossibility of resolving before the data exists. Similar weather markets on Polymarket have resolved without incident once official meteorological bodies publish their records, though delays occasionally extend settlement by a week or more.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch the Observatory's publication schedule and any alerts regarding equipment maintenance or data quality issues that might delay the daily extract. Broader weather patterns in early June 2026, particularly the onset of the southwest monsoon and any tropical systems approaching the region, will determine which temperature band ultimately settles. The Hong Observatory's website remains the sole authoritative source; no alternative measurements will be accepted for resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.