Highest temperature in London on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine which range this contract settles into. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will be hit. Settlement depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that single day, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC—meaning the final reading must be captured before noon.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, though the city has recorded highs of 28–30°C during early summer heat waves. The 2022 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 40°C across parts of the UK, but such extremes remain statistically uncommon for mid-June in the capital. Historical June data from City Airport shows most years cluster around 20–23°C for daily highs, providing a baseline against which current market pricing should be evaluated. The 0% probability on certain ranges likely reflects traders' assessment that those outcomes fall outside realistic bounds for this date and location.

Traders should monitor the Met Office's extended forecast as June approaches, particularly any alerts for high-pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive temperatures upward. The UK's summer weather in 2026 will depend on factors including North Atlantic Oscillation phases and solar activity patterns, neither of which show clear signals this far ahead. Any significant weather warnings issued in the week before 12 June could shift market expectations materially, as would unexpected atmospheric conditions closer to the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.