Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by historical data from Weather Underground. The current market pricing reflects zero probability across all temperature brackets, a technical artifact common in newly-listed weather contracts where liquidity has not yet formed and no traders have committed USDC to conditional token positions on Polygon. This absence of pricing does not indicate meteorological certainty; rather, it signals that the market awaits initial participation to establish baseline odds.

London's June temperatures typically peak between 20–24°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C at the airport station. Historical records show that temperatures above 25°C occur in roughly one-third of June days, whilst readings above 30°C remain exceptional events confined to heatwave conditions. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 June, capturing the morning and early afternoon window when daily highs are normally recorded. This timing matters for traders: a market resolving at noon excludes late-afternoon temperature spikes that might otherwise push readings into higher brackets.

Traders monitoring this contract should track UK Met Office forecasts released in the week preceding 13 June, particularly any alerts for unusual heat or unsettled conditions. Atmospheric pressure systems and jet stream positioning in early June 2026 will be the primary drivers of whether temperatures cluster in typical ranges or deviate significantly. The settlement source—Weather Underground's historical data for EGLC station—is publicly accessible and non-discretionary, eliminating ambiguity around resolution once the day concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.