Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% probability on Polymarket, suggesting either extreme illiquidity or a technical settlement issue rather than genuine market consensus. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can mint conditional tokens representing their temperature forecast, with payouts determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific day.

New York's late May weather typically ranges between 70°F and 85°F, though extremes are possible. Historical data from comparable years shows May 30th temperatures at LaGuardia have reached into the low 80s during warm springs and dipped to the mid-60s during cooler patterns. The 2024 May 30th high was 77°F; in 2023 it reached 82°F. These precedents suggest the most probable outcomes cluster in the 75–85°F band, though the current zero-probability pricing indicates the market has not yet attracted meaningful liquidity or price discovery.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center regarding whether the Northeast will experience above or below-normal temperatures during that period. Any significant atmospheric systems—tropical systems moving northward or anomalous high-pressure systems—would shift probabilities substantially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 May, giving traders until midday to adjust positions based on morning forecasts and early-day temperature readings.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.