Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market currently prices all outcomes at 0% YES across the board on Polygon, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or that traders have not yet begun positioning ahead of the settlement window. This contract settles against Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, making it dependent on actual meteorological conditions rather than forecaster consensus.

Paris experiences highly variable spring weather in late May, with historical highs ranging from 18°C to 32°C during this period. The 0% pricing across all temperature bands reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any meteorological certainty; comparable weather markets typically see meaningful probability distribution only as the settlement date approaches within days. May 2026 forecasts remain unavailable, but seasonal norms suggest temperatures between 20°C and 28°C are most probable for this timeframe, with cooler Atlantic systems and warmer continental air masses both plausible.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts beginning in early May 2026, particularly high-pressure systems tracking across the continent or low-pressure troughs from the Atlantic. Météo-France and ECMWF seasonal outlooks will provide the first signals of whether May 2026 trends warmer or cooler than climatological averages. As settlement approaches, conditional token pricing on Polygon will sharpen considerably once deterministic 10-day forecasts become available, likely driving meaningful liquidity into whichever temperature band appears most probable.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.