Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Market context

The highest temperature Seoul will experience on 10 June 2026 remains unpriced on Polymarket, with conditional tokens currently trading at 0% implied probability across all temperature bands. This reflects the market's nascent state rather than any meteorological certainty; settlement depends on Wunderground's historical data feed from Incheon International Airport's weather station, the official measurement point for the region. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can enter positions once liquidity pools form, with payouts determined by which temperature bracket—likely spanning 5°C increments—contains that day's recorded high.

Seoul's early summer climate in mid-June typically peaks between 25–28°C, though the city has recorded highs exceeding 30°C during heat waves in comparable periods. Historical June data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation; 2018 saw temperatures reach 31°C by mid-month, whilst cooler years remained in the mid-20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests either minimal initial participation or uncertainty about whether the market will attract sufficient liquidity to function as a meaningful price discovery mechanism.

Traders monitoring this contract should track South Korean meteorological forecasts as June approaches, particularly alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding early-season heat waves or monsoon systems. El Niño or La Niña patterns in the preceding months could influence seasonal temperature trajectories. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 10 June 2026, requiring traders to verify Wunderground's historical data entry within hours of market close, as occasional reporting delays or corrections occur with weather databases.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.