Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's highest temperature on 14 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The market currently prices this event at 0% YES across all temperature bands, reflecting the settlement window's closure before any actual measurement occurs. Traders holding USDC on Polygon are pricing conditional tokens that resolve based on which temperature bracket contains the recorded high—a straightforward factual outcome with no ambiguity once the day passes.

June in Seoul sits firmly within early summer, with historical highs typically ranging between 26°C and 32°C during this period. The Korea Meteorological Administration's records show that mid-June temperatures in the Seoul metropolitan area rarely exceed 33°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C in exceptional years. The 0% probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty; traders have not yet committed capital to specific temperature bands, leaving the contract unsettled pending the actual date.

Monitoring South Korea's seasonal weather patterns through June will be essential for positioning. The Korean Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks in advance, typically updated around early June. El Niño or La Niña conditions affecting the Western Pacific can influence whether Seoul experiences typical early-summer temperatures or anomalous heat. Traders should track both official KMA announcements and real-time atmospheric pressure systems developing over the Korean Peninsula in the weeks leading to mid-June, as these directly determine whether the day's high falls within cooler or warmer ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.