Highest temperature in Seoul on June 21?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, so the market is currently saying there is no meaningful chance that the day’s peak at Incheon Intl Airport Station lands in the outcome band tied to the event. In practical terms, traders are holding conditional tokens against a very specific airport observation, not a generic Seoul city reading, and the settlement will depend on the highest temperature recorded on the Wunderground history page for RKSI.

That 0% print sits against a climatological backdrop where June in South Korea is usually warm rather than extreme. Typical Seoul June highs are around 19 to 28°C, with some sources putting late-June daytime temperatures a touch higher and humidity rising as the month progresses.[1][2][3] For a June 21 weather event, the key comparison is not whether it feels hot by local standards, but whether the airport station produces an unusually strong afternoon spike relative to the month’s normal range. Because the market resolves on the *highest* reading for the day, a brief warm burst can matter more than the day’s average.

The main catalysts are weather-model updates, short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, and any shift in the seasonal rain pattern as Korea moves towards monsoon conditions later in June.[5][8] Traders should watch for changes in sunshine, wind direction, and humidity around Incheon, since those can move the day’s maximum even when the broader Seoul forecast looks steady. As the settlement source is a single airport station, the on-chain pricing can diverge from citywide headlines: the contract settles off the Wunderground record, while the market itself clears in USDC via Polygon conditional tokens.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.