Highest temperature in London on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station. The market currently prices all temperature brackets at 0% on Polygon, reflecting either extreme illiquidity or a technical issue in the conditional token pricing rather than genuine market indifference to the outcome. Traders entering this contract will be exchanging USDC for conditional tokens that resolve based on a single, verifiable data point: the peak temperature reading on that date.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18°C and 24°C, with historical extremes occasionally reaching 28–30°C during heat waves. The 2022 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 40°C nationally, though London City Airport recorded lower peaks than inland stations. June 2026 forecasting remains impossible at this distance, but seasonal patterns and climate trends suggest moderate-to-warm conditions are most probable. The 0% pricing across all brackets suggests the market may be awaiting sufficient liquidity before meaningful price discovery occurs.

Traders should monitor UK Met Office seasonal outlooks as June 2026 approaches, particularly any issued in spring 2026 indicating anomalous pressure systems or Atlantic weather patterns. The specific resolution source—London City Airport rather than central London or other stations—matters considerably, as airport microclimates can differ from surrounding areas. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 10 June, with Wunderground's historical archive providing the definitive closing data.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 10? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.