Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 12 June 2026 will fall into one of several defined ranges, with Polymarket currently pricing all outcomes at zero probability across the board. This reflects the market's nascent stage rather than any meteorological certainty; temperature prediction markets typically see meaningful price discovery only as the settlement date approaches and historical weather patterns become actionable data. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are effectively buying claims on specific temperature bands, with USDC collateral locked until resolution against Wunderground's historical records.

Seoul's June climate sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer, with average highs around 26–28°C but considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade has seen June temperatures in the Seoul metropolitan area range from lows of 21°C to highs exceeding 32°C, depending on monsoon timing and high-pressure systems moving across the Korean peninsula. Comparable June 12th dates show no extreme outliers, though the transition into the rainy season can produce both cooler, cloud-heavy days and sudden heat spikes when high pressure dominates.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, which typically issue extended outlooks by late May. Pacific typhoon activity and the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon—both historically variable in early-to-mid June—will be the primary drivers of actual temperature realisation. Current atmospheric indices suggest no exceptional heat or cold anomalies are forecast for that period, though such predictions remain inherently uncertain more than six months ahead.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.