Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

The Seoul metropolitan area experiences early summer conditions by mid-June, with the monsoon season typically beginning around late May or early June. On 13 June 2026, Incheon International Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature, which this market resolves against. Polymarket currently prices the YES outcome at 1%, implying traders expect the high to fall outside whichever temperature range the market specifies—likely a narrow band representing an unusually hot day for that date.

Historical June data from Incheon shows typical highs around 24–26°C during the second week of the month, though extremes have occasionally reached 30°C or higher during heat waves. The 1% probability reflects confidence that June 13 will not produce an anomalously high temperature; such low odds typically indicate the market has settled on a threshold well above seasonal norms. Comparable early-June heat events in Seoul are infrequent enough that traders treat them as tail-risk outcomes rather than baseline expectations.

Traders monitoring this contract should track weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) as June approaches, particularly any alerts regarding early heat waves or unusual pressure systems. The East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing influences regional temperatures substantially; delayed monsoon arrival can produce unseasonably warm conditions. Real-time forecast updates from Wunderground itself will sharpen probability estimates in the final days before settlement, though short-range weather prediction carries inherent uncertainty beyond one week out.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.