Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. The market currently prices all temperature bands at 0% YES across the board, reflecting the settlement window's closure at midday UTC on that date—a technical constraint that eliminates trading activity once the actual reading becomes observable. Traders holding USDC on Polygon can purchase conditional tokens representing discrete temperature ranges, with payouts determined by which band contains the recorded high.

June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C as the city transitions into early summer monsoon season. Historical precedent from comparable markets on Wunderground-resolved Shanghai temperatures shows that extreme heat days (35°C+) occur roughly once per decade in mid-June, whilst moderate warmth (29–31°C) represents the modal outcome. The 0% pricing reflects rational market behaviour when settlement is imminent and the underlying event is already determined but not yet publicly confirmed—traders cannot profitably arbitrage information that will crystallise within hours.

The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and monthly outlooks, though June 2026 predictions remain unavailable. Real-time catalysts include the East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing, which influences whether Shanghai experiences cooler, wetter conditions or a heat dome. Traders should monitor late May 2026 weather models and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, as these systems can suppress temperatures or, conversely, create stagnant high-pressure systems that drive sustained heat. Wunderground's historical archive updates daily, making this contract's resolution deterministic once the date passes.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.