Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Shanghai Pudong International Airport maximum temperature on 20 June at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no chance to the relevant Wunderground reading landing in the YES band. The contract settles in **USDC** on **Polygon** via conditional tokens, so traders are really positioning around the official daily high at the airport station rather than the broader city average or a generic Shanghai forecast.

For context, June in Shanghai is typically warm to hot, with long-run averages around **22°C to 28°C**, and daily highs often rising into the high 20s Celsius; one weather-history source also shows a recent June high above **92°F** on 11 June 2026, which is about **33°C**.[1][2][3] That matters because a zero-priced outcome usually reflects the market seeing the target range as either already out of reach or extremely unlikely under the contract’s exact settlement definition, not merely “cool weather” in the abstract. Polymarket users should read the current price as a view on the airport station’s top reading, which can differ from city-centre conditions and from headline forecasts.

The main catalysts are the same practical inputs that move any temperature market: updated local forecasts, the timing of showers or thunderstorms, and whether afternoon heating is suppressed by cloud cover or rainfall. Shanghai’s June climate is influenced by the **Meiyu** rainy season, which often brings frequent rain and humidity, while seasonal climate data from Shanghai shows a long-term warming trend that has gradually lifted baseline temperatures over time.[1][5] Traders will also watch how close the day gets to the airport’s noon-to-evening warm-up window, because the settlement source is the highest temperature recorded on the day at the specified station, not an all-day city average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.