Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either extreme uncertainty amongst traders or a technical pricing anomaly given that some outcome must occur. This contract settles against a single, verifiable data point—the daily maximum temperature in Celsius—making it straightforward to resolve once the day passes and historical records are published.

Taipei's June climate is characterised by early monsoon season conditions, with average highs around 32–33°C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms. Historical June temperatures at Songshan Airport typically peak between 30–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 37–38°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is unusual for a weather market with a defined settlement mechanism and established historical baseline, suggesting traders may be awaiting clarity on the specific temperature brackets offered or treating this as a placeholder until closer to the event date.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in late May and early June 2026, particularly any alerts from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau regarding heat waves or monsoon intensity shifts. La Niña or El Niño conditions developing through early 2026 could influence June temperatures materially. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 June, giving traders a narrow window to adjust positions once preliminary daily temperatures become apparent, though final Wunderground data may take several hours to confirm.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.