Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. That single reading—published to one decimal place in their official Daily Extract—determines which temperature band this contract settles into. Polymarket currently prices all outcome ranges at 0%, a reflection of the settlement window closing at noon UTC on the resolution date itself, leaving no meaningful trading window once the Observatory publishes its data. The contract sits dormant until the Observatory releases its daily climate record, at which point conditional tokens on Polygon will resolve against USDC collateral according to whichever temperature bracket captures the actual high.

Hong Kong's June climate is remarkably consistent year-on-year. Historical Observatory data shows daily maxima in mid-June cluster between 29°C and 32°C, with extremes rare. The 15th specifically has seen highs ranging from 28.5°C to 33.1°C across recent decades—a narrow enough band that any outcome within the standard ranges carries genuine probability weight once the market becomes active. This regularity means seasonal patterns and any unusual atmospheric conditions in the days preceding 15 June will be the primary drivers of which bracket ultimately settles.

Traders monitoring this contract should track tropical cyclone forecasts and upper-air patterns from early June onwards. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended outlooks weekly; any signals of monsoon disruption or heat dome formation could shift expectations materially. Humidity levels and cloud cover on the day itself remain unpredictable, but seasonal rainfall patterns and any El Niño or La Niña signals in the months prior offer early indicators of whether June 2026 will run warm or cool relative to the thirty-year normal.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.