Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai temperature contract at **0% YES** right now, which means the market is treating a top reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 21 June as effectively absent. On-chain, that price reflects where USDC liquidity on Polygon is clearing the conditional tokens, not a guarantee about the final Wunderground print. The settlement reference is the day’s highest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius, so the key question is whether the airport’s maximum reading lands inside the listed range before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

For context, June in Shanghai is normally well into the warm season. Long-run climate data for Pudong show average daily highs around the low 80s Fahrenheit, with June highs often rising through the month and very hot days occasionally pushing into the low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit; local climate summaries also note that summer highs regularly exceed 30°C[3][4][7]. That framing matters for a 0% market: if the contract range is aiming at a very low temperature band, the historical baseline makes that band look structurally unlikely unless clouds, rain, or a cool maritime flow hold temperatures down.

What matters most today is the live forecast and the airport-specific observations that feed the Wunderground history page. Meteoblue’s Pudong forecast calls for a sunny day with highs around 65°F and moderate breezes, which is materially cooler than the seasonal norm[1]. For a Polymarket user holding USDC, the practical watchpoints are whether that cool forecast persists through the day, whether rain or thunderstorms shift the airport maximum lower or higher, and whether the final Wunderground hourly history confirms the peak before settlement. The nearby Hongqiao forecast from BBC Weather is warmer and more unsettled, with thundery showers and a high around 28°C, which is useful as a regional check but not the resolution source[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.