Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global crude oil transits daily, has experienced sustained disruption since October 2023 when Houthi militants began attacking commercial vessels in response to the Gaza conflict. Daily transit calls—measured by IMF Portwatch as arrivals of container, bulk, tanker, and general cargo ships—have remained depressed well below the 60-vessel threshold that would signal normalisation. Polymarket currently prices YES at 2%, reflecting the market's assessment that traffic will not recover to pre-disruption levels within the next seventeen months. This contract settles on a specific technical trigger: a 7-day moving average of 60+ arrivals published by IMF Portwatch at any point through 31 May 2026.

Historical precedent suggests sustained maritime disruptions rarely reverse quickly. The Suez Canal blockage in March 2021, caused by the Ever Given grounding, took roughly three weeks to clear but required months for traffic patterns to normalise fully. The current Hormuz situation differs materially: it involves an active, motivated non-state actor with demonstrated capability and intent, not a single mechanical failure. Houthi attacks have persisted despite international naval presence and US-led coalition operations, indicating the disruption is structural rather than temporary.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements regarding ceasefire negotiations in Yemen, shifts in US military posture in the region, and any major escalation or de-escalation in Red Sea attacks. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg has documented insurance premium fluctuations and shipping route diversification around the Cape of Good Hope, suggesting markets expect prolonged disruption. The technical settlement mechanism—requiring IMF Portwatch publication specifically—adds a data dependency that could affect resolution timing independent of actual traffic recovery.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.