Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

MOUZ face Yellow Submarine in the Upper Bracket round 1 of The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a BO3 match scheduled to begin at 4:00 AM ET on 22 June. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 4% YES price for MOUZ winning, reflecting the crowd’s view that the European side holds a significant edge despite MOUZ’s historical dominance.

Historical head-to-head data frames this low probability as rational. In their 2024 European Pro League encounter, MOUZ defeated Yellow Submarine 2–0, and betting analytics from that period consistently favoured MOUZ as the clear winner[1][3]. While Yellow Submarine has shown resilience in other tournaments, including late-game comebacks against L1GA TEAM, their record against MOUZ remains poor, making the 4% market price a reflection of past performance rather than speculation[6].

Traders should monitor the official match start confirmation and any schedule adjustments, as delays beyond seven days without a winner would resolve the market to 50–50. The NEO.bet odds currently list MOUZ at 1.49 and Yellow Submarine at 2.44, reinforcing MOUZ’s status as favourites[2]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens mean that price movements will react swiftly to any pre-match announcements or roster changes, so real-time score updates from Hawk Live are critical for timing entries[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.