US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **1% YES**, which on-chain means traders on Polygon are assigning only a small chance that the required written instrument is actually adopted in time and settles through the conditional tokens mechanism. The market is not asking whether Washington and Tehran keep talking; it resolves only if the final, qualifying diplomatic text is mutually signed or formally adopted by **31 August 2026**, so the gap between an interim framework and a settlement-grade document matters more than headlines about dialogue.

The current setup is shaped by the June agreement already announced between the US and Iran, which both sides said was digitally signed and which opened a 60-day negotiating period on the nuclear file, sanctions relief and related issues.[4][2] That is a useful comparator for traders: the 2015 JCPOA took years of multilateral diplomacy and still faced major implementation risk, while the present deal is only a framework with several central terms left unsettled.[6][4] Reuters reported that the draft includes oil sanctions relief, asset releases and a pledge to negotiate a final accord within 60 days, but those elements are still conditional rather than a completed final deal.[3]

Near-term catalysts are the negotiation calendar, any confirmation of a Geneva follow-up, and whether the parties keep the ceasefire and shipping terms intact long enough to preserve room for talks.[2][3] Bloomberg-style market read-throughs are straightforward here: if there is no further signed text, no adopted memorandum, or a breakdown in technical discussions on uranium stockpiles, enrichment limits and inspectors, the market stays anchored near zero. Recent coverage has also pointed to political and security frictions, including postponed talks after renewed regional violence, which can quickly push a framework into drift rather than signature.[8][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.