Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **1% YES**, so the market is treating a runoff margin of victory falling into the contract’s winning band as a very low-probability outcome. Because settlement is on **USDC** via **Polygon** conditional tokens, the relevant question for holders is not who wins Colombia’s presidency in the abstract, but how the final certified gap between the top two candidates compares with the market’s defined margin buckets.

That 1% reading sits against a first round that was already tight by national-election standards. Abelardo de la Espriella led Iván Cepeda by **43.7% to 40.9%**, a gap of **2.84 percentage points**, with third-place and other non-finalist votes making up a potentially decisive transfer pool. Commentary from the time described the runoff as one of the closest in Colombia’s recent history, while later coverage said prediction markets leaned towards de la Espriella in the head-to-head, implying the central trading problem is not just turnout but which bloc breaks and how much of the first-round gap survives into the runoff. [1][2][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the official runoff timetable, turnout signals, and any late shifts in endorsements, coalition discipline or polling. The decisive event is the **certified second-round count** on 21 June, and the market will only resolve against the final percentage-of-valid-votes calculation for the top two candidates. Recent reporting highlighted security and conflict as live campaign issues, with undecided and invalid-vote shares still material enough to move the margin if they break unevenly. [4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket UK?

Zero. Polymarket UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.